9 June 2020 Blog Post: Coronvirus in Los Angeles County
When my kids were little, little we would watch Sesame Street before they went to school. Each show had a “Word of the Day.” Today’s word is worrisome.
You may have seen press reports stating that COVID-19 rates are starting to climb in Los Angeles County. Emergency Department doctors have stated that they are beginning to see an uptick in cases as well.. Worrisome. (Β https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-06-08/los-angeles-reopens-coronavirus-transmission-rate-climbing?fbclid=IwAR35ZoEXIM0Bc0hHzE5hCAIWoCDbAzivDAL05wg289nnFeM9Vl589_SJsLo)
The only good news is that mortality rates are in steep decline (Figure 3). A number of factors could explain such. For instance, we may be testing more younger individuals who tend to have disease that is less often fatal (certainly possible given #SaferAtHome mandates directed at seniors). Alternatively, there is an even longer lag time before mortality rates tick higher and we may graphically be seeing a calm before the (second) storm.
There is room for vigorous debate about the effects of protest marches, accelerating opening of businesses and relaxing public health mandates on face covering. However, I think that in all of this there is one inexcusable (and fixable) phenomenon – reporting delays at the County level. With all of the effort that has been put into Electronic Medical Records and claims of interoperability, data are either not getting to or being processed by the County fast enough. So we are always going to be 2-3 weeks late in our decision making, simply as a result of fixable actuarial delays. Its like watching the Oscars but waiting for Price-Waterhouse-Cooper to tell you the winners 3 weeks after the show ends.
Worrisome.
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